Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.089085 0.102241 0.116558 0.133284 0.152271 0.173143 0.197810
2026-02-08 0.067560 0.084247 0.103850 0.128524 0.158699 0.194344 0.239589
2026-02-15 0.051909 0.069954 0.092713 0.123405 0.163589 0.214270 0.282887
2026-02-22 0.042843 0.062138 0.088156 0.125587 0.177798 0.247749 0.348229
2026-03-01 0.033632 0.052411 0.079439 0.120829 0.182187 0.269273 0.401591
2026-03-08 0.026906 0.044934 0.072555 0.117447 0.187948 0.293589 0.462763
2026-03-15 0.021715 0.038772 0.066524 0.114273 0.193483 0.318415 0.528612
2026-03-22 0.018707 0.035562 0.064567 0.117183 0.208991 0.360766 0.627914
2026-03-29 0.015690 0.031718 0.060851 0.116484 0.218415 0.394714 0.718721
2026-04-05 0.013535 0.029010 0.058641 0.118037 0.231974 0.437539 0.830827
2026-04-12 0.011798 0.026754 0.056852 0.120043 0.246652 0.484380 0.956734
2026-04-19 0.009656 0.023191 0.051841 0.114870 0.246805 0.504623 1.036577
2026-04-26 0.007724 0.019697 0.046409 0.108090 0.243158 0.518127 1.107752
2026-05-03 0.006388 0.017261 0.042774 0.104476 0.245505 0.543950 1.207588
2026-05-10 0.005270 0.015078 0.039268 0.100484 0.246383 0.566983 1.305414
2026-05-17 0.004669 0.014080 0.038372 0.102445 0.261070 0.621708 1.479125
2026-05-24 0.003883 0.012373 0.035357 0.098649 0.261628 0.645414 1.588111
2026-05-31 0.003277 0.011018 0.032962 0.095953 0.264399 0.674607 1.714010
2026-06-07 0.002776 0.009840 0.030788 0.093403 0.267097 0.704045 1.844879
2026-06-14 0.002515 0.009348 0.030452 0.095861 0.283344 0.768805 2.070442
2026-06-21 0.002200 0.008588 0.029159 0.095325 0.291417 0.814294 2.254532
2026-06-28 0.001975 0.008080 0.028527 0.096643 0.304945 0.875870 2.488552
2026-07-05 0.001786 0.007646 0.028042 0.098327 0.319867 0.943344 2.747508